SHFE Tin Under Pressure and Fluctuating Slow Resumption of Production in Myanmar and Weak Demand in Tug-of-War Awaiting Macro Guidance [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

At midday on August 19, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract was at 266,320 yuan/mt, down 0.2% from the previous day's settlement price, with prices fluctuating rangebound and trading slightly sluggish. LME three-month tin closed overnight at $33,670/mt.

US PPI in July rose 3.3% YoY and up 0.9% MoM, far exceeding market expectations, reinforcing the expectation that the US Fed will maintain high interest rates, driving the US dollar index to rebound near 103.5, suppressing commodities priced in US dollars. The market focus shifts to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference (opening on the 22nd), where Powell's remarks on the interest rate path may trigger revisions in policy expectations. Additionally, the meeting dynamics between Trump and Zelensky and potential changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation could disturb geopolitical risk premiums, intensifying price volatility.

SHFE tin is expected to continue in the doldrums in the short term. Low LME tin inventory and supply shortages from Myanmar provide bottom support, but a strong US dollar and weak end-use demand limit upside room. If the US Fed signals a hawkish stance or geopolitical risks cool down, tin prices may test the 263,000 yuan support; conversely, if supply disruptions worsen or macro sentiment warms, prices are likely to return to the 268,000 yuan oscillation center. It is suggested to pay attention to LME inventory changes in the afternoon and signals of domestic policies boosting emerging demand.